2016 Pre-Debate Numbers

I know in these articles we have been concentrating on social issues as of late, but By the Numbers is more than just about that. The 2016 election is approaching, and this week we will be having the first Presidential debate on Thursday. By the way, if you are interested, ACTP is having a debate watching party on August 6th, come on out and have a good time. But back to numbers, there are two ways too look at the numbers. The national media loves too look at the National Numbers to see who is winning the race, so we will look at these numbers first. All numbers are coming from the Real Clear Politics polling averages.

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As you can see, the Donald has a commanding lead and it looks as if it is not going to end any time soon (well maybe I should wait to say that until after the first debate). But these numbers do not matter, just ask Rudy Guiliani who decided to skip out on the first states and concentrate on the larger states, did not work well for him. So the main states we need to worry about are Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida. In these states the polling tells a little different stories. First we will start with Iowa.

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As you can see, Scott Walker is the candidate who has a commanding lead, but this being a caucus state, it is possible for others to gang up on the front runners. But for the sake of polling, we will hand this to Walker, with the Donald coming in at second place, and Jeb coming in third. Now onto New Hampshire.

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The Donald may pick up his first win here, he has a significant lead that only appears to be growing, but after a theoretical win by Walker in Iowa, may cut into it a little, so we will say Trump wins New Hampshire, followed by Jeb, and Walker will come in 3rd. Now onto South Carolina.

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Notice the dates on the polling data, is that not frustrating? For a numbers geek like me it is. So the most recent poll was back in May showing Lindsey Graham with a slight edge, my guess is Graham will probably concentrate in South Carolina because he has no chance in Iowa or New Hampshire, so we will go a head and give this one to him for now, due to Walker’s win in Iowa we will give him second place, with the Jeb coming in third due to neighboring Florida, the Donald may come in fourth. Now we move on to Nevada.

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Nevada does not get a lot of attention, but the Donald does look to have a significant lead in this very Hispanic state.

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Florida is the big one largely because of the way the delegates are handled. In all previous states, the delegates won is divided up depending by the popular vote. So even second, third and fourth places can get delegates. Not so in Florida, who wins Florida gets ALL the delegates. So here we may finally see Jeb get his first, and maybe most important win, if he can keep enough momentum going until Florida comes around, then after this primary he will be the GOP front runner going into super Tuesday.

So in review, at this stage of the game, it’s a contest between Walker, Trump and Jeb for the nomination because these three candidates will dominate the early states. Because of Trump’s entry into the race, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and the others will likely be out of it by super Tuesday. But heck, it’s August 2015, and by the time the election in Indiana comes around in May 2016, who knows what the contest will look like then, or if there will even be a contest.

Larry Hartman

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